The pressure on the performance side continues to release, and it will still hover at the bottom in the short term: due to the impact of factors such as the bottoming out of gross profit margin and asset impairment, the overall revenue of 15 typical real estate enterprises listed on Atroph in 2023 increased by 3% year-on-year.Torchrelayasiangames20182.2%, the net profit of home ownership decreased by 25.6% compared with the same period last year, which was 1 percentage point lower than that in 2022. In 2023, the overall gross profit margin of 15 listed housing enterprises was 16.8%, down 3.4 percentage points from the same period last year. Considering factors such as high-price carry-over and heavy inventory clearance, the short-term settlement end gross profit margin may still hover at the bottom. The degree of performance guarantee (final contract liabilities / operating income of the past year) is 91.9%, which has fallen below 100% for the first time in recent years, and the pressure on short-term performance remains. From the perspective of enterprises, the performance of central enterprises is relatively dominant. In 2023, the overall revenue of the 15 listed central state-owned enterprises maintained positive growth, with an increase of 7.5% over the same period last year, while the net profit of returning home decreased by 16.8% year on year, 8.9 percentage points lower than in 2022. Sales rise first and then decline, take the land cautiously and gather. Thanks to a brief recovery in the property market at the beginning of 2023, sales of 15 listed housing companies totaled 3.1 trillion yuan, down 5.9 per cent from a year earlier, slightly better than the national level (- 6.5 per cent) and 15.1 percentage points lower than in 2022. Looking forward to 2024, a number of housing enterprises play down the target of sales scale, pay more attention to sound operation and cash flow security, reflecting the expectation of the property market is still cautious. In 2023, 15 listed housing enterprises remain cautious in land acquisition, with an average annual land sales area ratio of 47% and a land sales ratio of 34%, which is still in a state of net consumption of land reserves. The decrease in the ratio of land sales (5%) is significantly lower than that of land sales area (11%), and the return of land to high land priceTorchrelayasiangames2018The core city is still continuing. In 2023, the sales growth of central state-owned enterprises decreased by 1.9% compared with the same period last year, which was less than that of private enterprises (- 19.2%). The average land sales ratio was 29%, which was higher than that of private enterprises (20%). Cash on hand continues to decline, and the financial situation of central state-owned enterprises is better than that of private enterprises: the pressure on the sales side is also reflected in the cash flow of real estate enterprises. At the end of 2023, the overall cash on hand of 15 listed real estate enterprises was 926.7 billion yuan, down 9.2% from the same period last year. Among them, central state-owned enterprises had 775.8 billion yuan in cash at the end of 2023, down 6.1% from the end of 2022, and the decline was much lower than that of private enterprises (- 22.3%), reflecting the greater advantage of central state-owned enterprises in sales and financing. After excluding the advance collection, the asset-liability ratio, net debt ratio and cash short-debt ratio of the 15 listed housing enterprises are 62.9%, 49.9% and 184.4% respectively. The "three red lines" remain green, but the cash short-debt has decreased by 13.7 percentage points compared with the end of 2022. Investment advice: typical housing enterprises scale shrinking table, performance pressure, gross profit margin downward trend is still continuing in 2023, but with the gradual release of impairment pressure, the subsequent profit end decline is expected to gradually narrow, but we still need to pay attention to the real estate enterprise cash flow pressure caused by the pressure on the property market. The recent meeting of the Politburo emphasized the elimination of inventory, Beijing, Shenzhen and other places have gradually optimized the purchase restriction policy, the real estate sector as a whole ushered in a rebound, looking forward to the future, although the real estate sector has experienced a continuous rebound, but the institutional positions and the market value of individual stocks are still at historical lows, the market response to the downward price of housing prices and the performance of real estate enterprises has been gradually passivated, and the floor layout can be moderate, taking into account that there will be repetition at the bottom of house prices. Not getting on the bus or cautious investors can still wait for prices to stabilize and get on the right side of the car. In terms of individual stocks, real estate proposes to pay attention to high-quality real estate enterprises with optimized soil storage quality and less historical burden, such as Poly Development, China overseas Development, Binjiang Group, etc.; at the same time, pay attention to property management (Poly property, investment accumulation, etc.), agent construction (Greentown Management Holdings), brokers (shells) and other subdivision leaders. Risk hints: 1) the risk of persistent weakness in property market transactions; 2) the risk of individual real estate enterprises' liquidity problems fermenting and chain reaction exceeding expectations; 3) the risk of policy improvement and implementation falling short of expectations. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
